Analyst Forecasts 2025 Nintendo Switch 2 Sales

Summary

• An analyst predicts that the Switch 2 will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming it launches within the first half of the year.
• The analyst believes the Switch 2 will perform strongly, but the PS5 may lead in US console sales.
• The success of the Nintendo Switch 2 could hinge on its launch timing, hardware quality, and the competitiveness of its game lineup.

Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella has forecasted that the Nintendo Switch 2 will sell approximately 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, provided it launches in the first half of the year. For comparison, the original Nintendo Switch sold 4.8 million units by the end of 2017, exceeding initial expectations and prompting Nintendo to fly in additional units to meet demand. Fans are hopeful that Nintendo has taken these lessons to heart and will be better prepared for the Switch 2's launch.

Anticipation for Nintendo's next console is high, with the Switch 2 frequently trending on social media as fans eagerly await an announcement. However, translating this excitement into sales will depend on various factors, including the timing of the launch and the quality and appeal of the console's game lineup.

Circana video game analyst Mat Piscatella shared his prediction that the Nintendo Switch 2 could sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025, assuming a launch within the first half of the year. Many speculate that the Switch 2 might be released by April 2025, just before summer, which could boost sales during Japan's Golden Week holiday and other seasonal festivities worldwide.

Analyst Predicts 4.3M Switch 2 Sales in 2025

Seeing as how an announcement appears to be coming soon (but who knows) - I have Nintendo's next hardware device selling 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming 1H launch), accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).— Mat Piscatella (@matpiscatella.bsky.social) 2025-01-08T16:09:43.754Z

Piscatella further elaborated that the Switch 2 could represent about one-third of all video game hardware unit sales in the US, excluding portable PC devices like the Steam Deck or ROG Ally. He also raised concerns about potential supply constraints due to high initial demand, although he is unsure of the manufacturing resources Nintendo has allocated. It's possible that Nintendo has prepared in advance to avoid the supply issues faced during the launches of the original Switch and the PS5.

While Piscatella is optimistic about the Switch 2's sales, he believes the PlayStation 5 will retain its position at the top of US console sales. The Switch 2's hype could drive sales, but the PS5's lineup, including highly anticipated titles like Grand Theft Auto 6 expected in 2025, might overshadow it. The success of the Switch 2 will ultimately depend on its hardware quality and the strength of its launch lineup.