Switch 2 Predicted as the Best Selling Next-Gen Console Despite Not Even Being Out Yet

DFC Intelligence Predicts Nintendo Switch 2 Dominance in Next-Gen Console Market

Market research firm DFC Intelligence forecasts the Nintendo Switch 2 to achieve remarkable sales figures, surpassing all competitors even before its official launch. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, positions the Switch 2 as the "clear winner" in the next-gen console race.

Projected Sales: 80 Million Units by 2028

DFC Intelligence projects sales of 15-17 million Switch 2 units in 2025 alone, escalating to over 80 million units by 2028. This projection anticipates Nintendo's dominance in the console market, leaving Microsoft and Sony comparatively behind. The report attributes this success to the Switch 2's anticipated earlier release (rumored for 2025) and a relatively sparse competitive landscape. The high demand may even lead to production challenges for Nintendo.

While Sony and Microsoft are reportedly developing handheld consoles, these projects appear to be in their early stages. DFC Intelligence suggests new consoles from these companies by 2028. This three-year head start for the Switch 2 (barring surprise releases) is expected to solidify its market leadership. The report suggests only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success, possibly a hypothetical "PS6," leveraging PlayStation's established fanbase and strong intellectual properties.

The Switch's enduring popularity is undeniable, with lifetime US sales surpassing those of the PlayStation 2, according to Circana (formerly NPD). Mat Piscatella, executive director and analyst at Circana, highlighted the Switch's position as the second best-selling console in US history, trailing only the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy despite a reported 3% year-on-year sales decline for the original Switch.

Positive Outlook for the Video Game Industry

DFC Intelligence's report paints a positive picture for the video game industry. David Cole, founder and CEO, notes the industry's remarkable growth over three decades and anticipates a return to healthy growth through the end of the decade, following a two-year slowdown. 2025 is predicted to be a particularly strong year, fueled by new product releases like the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI.

The gaming audience is projected to exceed 4 billion players by 2027, driven by the rising popularity of portable gaming and the influence of esports and gaming personalities. This trend also fuels increased hardware purchases across PC and consoles.