Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-order Chaos: Analysts Predict Price Hikes Amid Tariff Uncertainty

The past week has been a whirlwind for U.S. gamers. The Nintendo Switch 2 was unveiled with much fanfare, showcasing its features and games, but enthusiasm quickly turned to frustration over its $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour. This morning, Nintendo added another twist, announcing a delay in pre-orders to evaluate the impact of the Trump Administration’s sudden, far-reaching tariffs on nearly every country.

We’ve previously explored why the Nintendo Switch 2 carries a high price and how the gaming industry’s trade group views the broader impact of these tariffs. The pressing question now is: what’s next for Nintendo? Will pre-orders bring an even steeper price for the Switch 2?

Typically, I turn to expert industry analysts for insights on gaming trends. While they can’t predict the future, their evidence-based consensus often provides clarity. I’ve consulted them twice this week already. But for the first time, every analyst I spoke with was at a loss. Some speculated on price increases, others didn’t, but all emphasized the unprecedented chaos of the moment. No one can confidently forecast what Nintendo, the Trump Administration, or anyone else might do tomorrow, next week, or months from now.

With that striking caveat, here’s what the analysts shared:

Soaring Costs for Switch 2

Analysts offered varied predictions, reflecting the uncertainty. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, leaned toward a price hike. Initially, he believed Nintendo couldn’t raise prices after announcing them, but the pre-order delay shifted his view. He now sees little choice for Nintendo.

“It’s tough to predict, but Nintendo will likely run models over a few days and then announce increases—not just for the console but also for games and accessories,” Toto said. “I hope I’m mistaken, but these steep tariffs leave them little room. Would a $500 base model surprise you? It wouldn’t surprise me.

“One more thing: Why didn’t Nintendo wait for the U.S. to clarify its tariff policy before setting prices during a Direct? It’s baffling.”

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the unpredictability but leaned toward rising game prices, including Nintendo’s. He noted that the tariffs’ scope caught everyone off guard. “From my discussions, the scale of these tariffs stunned not just consumers but the industry,” he said.

Piscatella suggested Nintendo likely based its original pricing on expected tariffs, but Wednesday’s reality exceeded those assumptions. “Any business relying on global supply chains is now reassessing U.S. pricing. They have no choice.

“Some regions globally have long faced higher game prices. The U.S. might now join them due to these tariffs. The chaotic rollout has left everyone scrambling to adapt.”

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicted hardware price increases but suggested software might be less affected. “Physical copies could face tariffs, but digital distribution’s rise and lower costs should limit broader impacts,” he said.

“For hardware, it’s trickier. If tariffs hit 20% or more, companies like Nintendo likely won’t absorb the cost by cutting margins. Consumers will bear the burden through higher prices.”

Resisting Price Hikes

On the other side, with heavy disclaimers about the uncertainty, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, argued Nintendo might avoid raising prices. He believes the $449.99 price already accounts for tariff risks.

“Nintendo likely factored in tariff volatility from the first Trump administration,” he said. “Like other manufacturers, it has restructured supply chains to mitigate geopolitical risks. Historically, Nintendo targets a $400 launch price, adjusted for inflation, suggesting the current price anticipates trade challenges.

“Still, the erratic tariff decisions, like those affecting Vietnam, create market uncertainty. Nintendo will likely try to absorb or offset costs, especially with tight initial margins. While they’ll fight to keep the $449.99 price, worsening trade conditions could force a rethink.”

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agreed, noting potential consumer backlash if prices rise. “The tariff scope, especially on Vietnamese exports, is tough for Nintendo,” he said. “Having announced the price, they’re in a bind. I previously said pricing would hold until at least 2026, but this delay buys time to seek solutions. It’s a fluid situation. Nintendo won’t want to adjust prices, but everything’s on the table. A price change could harm the brand and deter casual buyers, especially during the first holiday season, though loyal fans will likely stay.”

Navigating a Chaotic Market

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, joined those predicting price increases for both hardware and software due to tariffs. He referenced his earlier comments on Nintendo’s strategy to push cheaper digital editions in some markets. “Nintendo may have planned a similar digital push in the U.S., but the tariff chaos forced a wait-and-see approach to offset potential costs,” he said.

Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery

Elliott painted a bleak picture for the gaming industry, aligning with warnings from an Entertainment Software Association spokesperson. He argued tariffs would lead to a “weaker, poorer nation,” with consumers footing the bill. Here’s more from Elliott:

“Some manufacturers, including Nintendo, have shifted production to avoid tariffs,” he said. “But with new markets potentially facing tariffs, as recent news suggests, companies can’t simply relocate entire supply chains to the U.S. It’s logistically impossible. Under current law, such a move would outlast the current administration’s term.

“These extreme tariffs hurt U.S. consumers while fueling a populist narrative. Higher prices during a cost-of-living crisis are indefensible and bad for gamers and the industry. The claim of a ‘stronger, richer nation’ doesn’t hold up.

“Data consistently shows tariffs damage economies. Comparative advantage—a cornerstone of trade theory—boosts consumption and well-being when countries produce efficiently and trade for less efficient goods. This trade war defies those principles.”