Diablo 5 Timeline: Fergusson on Diablo 4's Longevity

Rod Fergusson, Diablo general manager, kicked off his DICE Summit 2025 presentation not with a victory lap, but by addressing one of Diablo's most infamous setbacks: Error 37. This launch-day debacle for Diablo 3, caused by overwhelming player numbers, resulted in widespread criticism and became a memorable internet meme. While Diablo 3 ultimately triumphed, the experience underscored the importance of preventing similar catastrophes, especially given Diablo's evolution into a complex live-service game with frequent updates, seasons, and expansions.

The stakes are higher than ever for Diablo 4, which has fully embraced the live-service model. Another Error 37-level failure would be devastating, particularly if Blizzard aims for Diablo 4 to become a long-term live-service juggernaut.

Diablo, Immortal

At DICE Summit 2025 in Las Vegas, I spoke with Fergusson following his presentation, "Evolving Sanctuary: Building a Resilient Live-Service Game in Diablo IV." He highlighted four crucial elements for Diablo 4's resilience: scalable infrastructure, consistent content delivery, design flexibility, and proactive player communication. Fergusson emphasized the team's commitment to long-term player engagement, a significant departure from the release cycles of previous Diablo games. The focus on extensive content roadmaps and season planning reflects a shift towards a sustained live-service model, unlike the traditional numbered releases of the past.

This led to my question: Is Diablo 4 destined for immortality, or is there a point where development shifts to Diablo 5? Fergusson's response indicated a long-term commitment, but not necessarily eternity. "We want it to be around for years," he stated. "We want people to see the road ahead, respecting their time investment and ensuring we're not a fleeting presence." He highlighted the significant gaps between previous Diablo releases (over a decade between Diablo 2 and 3, and another between 3 and 4), noting the absence of the aggressive update schedule currently planned for Diablo 4.

Fergusson's experience leading the Gears franchise and his more recent involvement with Diablo have shaped his approach. He learned from initially ambitious timelines, particularly regarding expansion releases. The second expansion, Vessel of Hatred, was originally slated for 2025, but delays due to prioritizing live game updates and the first season pushed its release to 2026. While the 18-month gap between Diablo 4's launch and Vessel of Hatred is significant, Fergusson refrained from committing to a fixed expansion schedule, emphasizing the need for flexibility and learning from ongoing development.

"I learned my lesson about calling the shot too early," he admitted. "Giving players an 11-month heads-up is about as far as I want to go right now. We're still building and learning. Our process involves internal certainty before making public announcements."

Ruining the Surprise…on Purpose

Fergusson's cautious approach is particularly relevant given the team's increased transparency. This includes the upcoming April content roadmap and the Public Test Realm (PTR), allowing players to test patches before live deployment. Initially, the team hesitated about using a PTR or roadmap, fearing spoiler effects. However, Fergusson explained the shift in perspective: "It's better to ruin the surprise for 10,000 people so that millions of people have a great season." He emphasized the preference for addressing issues in the PTR rather than facing broader negative consequences from a flawed live release.

Expanding PTR access to consoles is a current goal, hampered by certification challenges and the complexities of console build releases. However, Blizzard is actively working on this, aided by the support of parent company Xbox. Fergusson also highlighted the positive impact of Diablo 4's presence on Game Pass, significantly lowering the barrier to entry for new players and contributing to sustained growth.

In closing, I asked Fergusson about his gaming habits, hoping to gain insight into his inspirations. While he acknowledged the comparisons between Diablo 4 and Path of Exile 2, he stressed their fundamental differences. He also addressed player feedback regarding overlapping seasons in competing games, indicating a willingness to consider player preferences in future updates.

Finally, Fergusson revealed his top three games of 2024 by playtime: NHL 24 (third), Destiny 2 (second), and, unsurprisingly, Diablo 4 (first). His personal playtime on Diablo 4 alone exceeded 650 hours, excluding work-related play. This personal dedication underscores his deep-seated passion for the game, influencing his approach to development and long-term vision for Diablo's future.